Report prepared for the Business Council of Australia on the likely environmental impacts of population growth in Australia and the technological, behavioural, pricing and settlement planning interventions that might be used to manage population-related issues . The following is a transmittal report from the Steering Committee that managed the project for the Academy.
Population Futures Study - Steering Committee's Letter of Transmittal
The work of the Steering Committee and its consultants has enabled the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) to make some observations about Australia's ability to carry a larger population by 2050 without degrading the environment from today's standards. On the basis of this review there are reasonable grounds for believing Australia can, without further damage to the environment, sustain a significantly larger population over the next fifty years. Given the prevailing and expected urbanization of Australia, population growth will be primarily urban. The application of technological, behavioural and pricing and planning strategies will enable the environmental impacts of this population growth to be managed. Our work is of a preliminary nature and gives guidance to areas of further work to enable firmer conclusions to be drawn.
This review stems from an increasing interest on the part of the Academy in population growth and its relationship to infrastructure, resource provision and environmental impact in Australia. Our discussions were brought into sharper focus when the Business Council of Australia (BCA) approached ATSE seeking advice on these general points, and the formal invitation which followed has given rise to this brief analysis and the detail contained in the accompanying report.
Our thinking at first led us to consider the development of a Population Policy. Others had attempted this and their efforts made it clear that the issues involved were essentially political, especially insofar as they involved immigration policy. Moreover, the development of a Population Policy - often referred to as a study of Australia's carrying capacity, - also requires input decisions about lifestyles, regional development, sustainability targets, ageing populations, and other matters that lie outside the core competency of the Academy. A Population Policy must necessarily cover just about every aspect of life in a future Australia. Developing such a policy was clearly a task that lay beyond the abilities of all but the Commonwealth Government.
Discussions between representatives of ATSE and BCA refined the brief so that the commission from BCA was for a study of the potential environmental impacts of population growth. As well as the impacts, the study was to cover the technological, behavioural, pricing and settlement planning measures that could be used to manage the impacts expected from future populations. Without in any way predicting these, we agreed to consider three scenarios up to the year 2050. In one, the population would continue to grow along the present trend line, leading to an Australia with 24.8 million people. In the second, we considered the effect of 1% additional growth so that the population reached 31.5 million. No assumptions were made about how this growth rate could be attained. The third 'accelerated' scenario would see a population of 37.9 million in fifty years' time, but again no consideration was given to how such population growth could be achieved. Instead, the focus of the study was to see what answers were available to the 'scenario' question - 'how would technology respond to a population of ...?'.
It became clear as the study framework developed that, in the time available, it would not be possible to develop original research-based answers to the questions that would arise. Rather, it was decided, the study would examine the current literature that bears on the issues, evaluating it for relevance and identifying any gaps in the knowledge.
The ATSE Steering Committee that developed the study framework sought the assistance of professional consultants to retrieve and assess relevant information. The consultants we selected worked closely with the Steering Committee, following up leads identified by ATSE Fellows, taking part in conferences with Fellows and providing drafts for their consideration.
Earlier studies by ATSE, by CSIRO and by scholars commissioned by the BCA had suggested that the growth of population in Australia would not be limited by the availability of resources such as food and water. These statements have been largely uncontested, but there have been repeated public statements that population growth constitutes a significant threat to the Australian environment. Soil degradation, air and water pollution, and loss of biodiversity were most often cited as dire effects that could only be avoided if Australia's population remained at or near its present level or, in the judgment of some commentators, were to be drastically reduced. Reversing the effects of past depredations also required, in this 'world view', smaller and better-behaved populations.
The present study shows that predictions of environmental disaster in Australia arising from population growth are ill-founded and arise from muddled and sometimes emotive thinking about the cause of environmental impacts. There is no question that Australia has suffered significant environmental damage, and might suffer in future if land, water and air are not better-managed. However, the most important concept developed by the consultants and the ATSE Steering Committee was that increases in many environmental impacts are not related to the population size, but they arise from other activities that might be broadly described as 'resource development'. Such developments could be undertaken, and are, almost regardless of Australia's population.
This is not to suggest that all environmental impacts are brought about by factors unrelated to population size or growth. For example, depletion of arable land through the growth of cities and pollution of land by poor waste disposal practices are strongly population-linked. Similarly, water and air pollution close to cities - the latter largely due to car and truck traffic - are directly linked to the size of populations as well as to their activities. It is the second factor upon which mitigation measures must take effect, either through technological development, lifestyle changes, market instruments, regulatory change and policies for planning and settlement. Policy and the regulations which might flow from it have key roles to play in providing incentives for technological advance, whereas education (in its broadest sense) is likely to be the essential foundation for behavioural change.
The attached report amplifies and qualifies these broad themes. First, it embarks on an assessment of the degree to which particular environmental impacts are related to growth of population. Having clearly identified those impacts which might be expected if growth were to occur in the absence of technological or behavioural change, the report then proceeds to explore strategies for mitigating the possible impacts. Examples of successful mitigation programs have been identified and the possibilities for their future application are explored. In the case of technological change, the report is scrupulous in avoiding the notion of the 'technological fix' which could lead to over-optimistic predictions of impact mitigation. Instead, technological advance is seen as flowing from present technology, just as policy and regulatory developments are linked to the present situation. In both instances, wider application of present 'successes' is advocated. However, we are confident that successful mitigation strategies will be developed.
Finally, the report recommends that there be further scientific study of the relationship between Australia's population and our ability to manage pollution of land, pollution of waters near major urban areas, depletion of freshwater stocks near major urban areas, and pollution of urban airsheds not only to allow for larger population but also to improve our current situation.
Should the Business Council of Australia wish to pursue in more depth the study of these relationships, the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering would be happy to discuss ways in which such a project could be undertaken. The emphasis in such a project would be the study of how new and emerging technologies could be used to mitigate the pollution of land, water and air in urban areas and improve freshwater stocks for our cities.
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